I am looking at the top500.org Performance
Development chart of supercomputers since 1993. What's interesting
is how the No.500 spot has improved in remarkably smooth increments
since 1993; while the No.1 spot has not - rising in distinct steps. This makes sense I guess, the lumps and bumps of innovation, etc. All
that fresh air at the top of the mountain. Naturally I can't help
wondering though, at what position would the graph change from one to
the other.
But my question really is, is this a generalisable
phenomenon? So, say, that in any given rankable performance is there a level at
which the rate of improvement is predictable?
Or to put it another way, how good do you have to be to be unpredictable?